Exponential Innovation And Melting Ice

Why “disruptor’s disruption” is the new “innovator’s dilemma.”

Where would we be without ice?

Ice has been an essential part of human civilization for thousands of years, beginning with ice harvested from lakes and rivers. As ice production became more industrialized in the 19th century, ice was used to cool food and drinks, as well as to preserve perishables like meat and fish.

The development of industrial ice production and the use of dry ice in the 20th century led to even greater advances in food preservation and refrigeration. Dry ice is a form of carbon dioxide that is frozen at a temperature of -109.3 degrees Fahrenheit. It is used to keep food cold because it sublimates, or turns directly from a solid to a gas, without going through a liquid phase. This makes it an excellent way to keep perishables cold while they are being transported. Some might remember the “ice box” which was an early form of the refrigerator that used dry ice and a simple fan. Along with that device was the “ice man” who would deliver a new block of dry ice every few days.

In the 20th century, innovations in refrigeration technology made it possible for ice to be produced on a large scale at home. With the invention of electric ice makers and freezers, ice became a common household commodity that could be easily prepared and stored for use as needed.

Today, ice is still an important part of our lives — both literally and figuratively. It continues to play a central role in food preservation, but it is also an important symbol of innovation. With the examples of ice manufacturing, we see that each innovation — ice harvesting, industrial ice manufacturing, and home refrigeration — was both disruptive and emerged from a new business modality. In other words, each innovation wasn’t born out of the prior market leader!

The “Innovator’s Dilemma” is a term coined by Clayton Christensen that describes how established companies can be overtaken by smaller, more agile competitors who offer better products or services at lower prices. Christensen’s theory is that these disruptive companies often start as niche players, but eventually grow to become much larger than the existing market leaders. This phenomenon is a common theme in many innovations, including ice harvesting and ice manufacturing. As these companies emerged with new ways of producing ice, they disrupted the existing market leaders and forced them to either adapt or become obsolete.

While ice may seem like a simple commodity, its continued importance as a symbol of innovation demonstrates the inherent value of disruptive thinking and agile business models. Whether you are an ice manufacturer or an established company facing disruption from upstart competitors, it is important to stay open to novel ideas and embrace change if you hope to remain competitive in today’s fast-changing world. Perhaps even more important is that complacency as a market leader can be dangerous. Exponential innovation can drive change at an incredible rate that creates a new “innovator’s dilemma” that I call “disruptor’s disruption.” Today’s innovators must look forward, but also backward as innovation’s, rapid speed to market, and consumer adoption can happen in the blink of an eye. Otherwise, their “new” product and be left in the dust of another exponentially advanced idea.

And it’s this change that may be best described as innovation quanta — or discrete packets of innovation that aren’t established incrementally, but as a quantum jump to a completely new idea or product. This idea was succinctly captured by Peter Theil and Blake Masters in their book Zero To One. At its core, Zero to One is about the idea of disruptive innovation–that is, developing new products or services that completely upend existing markets and change the way we view our world.

And ice harvesting and manufacturing are prime examples of this revolutionary approach to business. Both ice harvesters and ice manufacturers were seen as innovators at the time because they brought something entirely new to their respective industries. The “evolution” of the ice business was less an evolution but more of a “big bang” of innovation that moved quickly to eliminate the prior model and build a new product that leveraged technology and consumer needs.

Ice has played an essential role in shaping human history and society. Whether you’re enjoying a frosty glass of iced tea on a hot summer day or celebrating the success of an innovative new product, ice will always be a key part of our lives. But the path of that “package of cold” offers interesting insights around innovation and transformation in a world where speed and the resulting kinetic energy will melt today’s ice cube into something completely new and entirely transformative. Did someone just say medicine, or even GPT?