Brave New Exponential World

Is GPT-3 the next game-changer?

It’s here. Over the past one month, we’ve seen something amazing—the emergence of GPT-3 and ChatGPT. Technologically and culturally, the impact of this platform has been truly amazing and the days of linear growth have been displaced by exponential change. While this is nothing new (think viral replication and transmission as well as smart phones). But it’s worth taking a closer look at…

Exponential growth is a type of growth that occurs when the rate of growth is proportional to the size of the population or system being studied. It is characterized by a rapid increase in size or quantity over time.

In exponential growth, the rate of change increases over time. This means that the growth becomes more and more rapid as time goes on. For example, if a population is growing exponentially, the population size will double in a fixed amount of time. This fixed amount of time is known as the doubling time.

Exponential growth can occur in a variety of systems, including populations, financial investments, and technological advances. It is important to note that exponential growth is not sustainable in the long term, as it eventually reaches a limit known as the carrying capacity of the system. This means that the growth rate eventually slows down or stops altogether.

One classic example of exponential growth in the marketplace is the adoption of a new technology or product. When a new technology or product is introduced, it typically starts off slowly, with only a few people adopting it at first. However, as more and more people begin to use it and share their experiences with others, the technology or product can experience rapid growth in popularity.

For example, consider the adoption of smartphones. When smartphones were first introduced, they were expensive and not widely available. However, as their prices dropped and more models became available, their adoption rate increased rapidly. Today, smartphones are an essential part of daily life for many people around the world.

Another example of exponential growth in the marketplace is the growth of e-commerce. In the early days of the internet, only a small number of people were using it to make purchases. However, as the internet became more widely available and more people began to trust it as a secure platform for transactions, the number of people using it to make purchases grew rapidly. Today, e-commerce is a major part of the global economy, with many people around the world using it to buy and sell goods and services.

But today, we stand at a point of exponential growth that may represent something different—more of a technology inflection point. An inflection point is a point at which a significant change occurs, often marked by a turning point or a critical juncture. In technology, inflection points can occur when a new technology or innovation is introduced that disrupts existing technologies or markets. The key word being disruption.

It took a life-time—67 years for the airplane to reach 50 million users, but only 3 years for Facebook. And strikingly, only 19 days for Pokemon to reach that level. That’s exponential growth. And with it, comes “exponential transformation” that carries society on a wave of unexpected change.

That’s where we are today. GPT-3 is a wave that will impact technology, education, business and life itself. But it’s essential that on this speedy trip into the future, you keep an eye on what coming even faster. Early reports suggest the GPT-4 is expected to arrive in Q1 of 2023—just days away. The capabilities of this next generation have been suggested to be conceptually over 500 times more powerful. And that may be disruption on an unprecedented and colossal level.

It’s certainly Brave New World and Huxley’s warning about technology and scientific progress may be worth keeping top of mind.